No. 01 · US–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund
One side started accruing in 2025. The other starts in 2039.
Ukraine assigned half the state's take from every deposit it has not yet developed — then waits fourteen years to contribute anything at all.
Under Article VI §5, American military assistance converts into partnership capital automatically, from the day the agreement took effect. Ukraine's contribution is a revenue right that pays nothing until a mine produces. On the base case, that is 2039.
The framework text is public. The partnership agreement that decides how the economics are split is not.
Fourteen years of one-sided accrual
Years each party has been contributing, from the agreement's effective date
SOURCE: AGREEMENT ARTS. VI §2, VI §5 · FIRST LOSS MODEL, BASE CASE
2039
Modelled first production revenue, base case
0.85%
Ukraine's whole subsoil rent line, as a share of budget revenue
2 of 4
Lithium deposits outside Ukrainian control, both lost after signing
0
Arbitral forums available to Ukraine under the agreement
What was signed
Obligations by party and force of language
Ukraine's commitments run on shall ensure, shall cause, shall take all steps. The American side runs on affirms, expresses its expectation, and — on contributions — plans to.
What it attaches to
Extractive payments to the state budget by sector, 2020
SOURCE: EITI NATIONAL REPORT OF UKRAINE 2020
Everything Ukraine earns from subsoil today sits on licences already exploited — outside the claim. Lithium and rare earths, which carry the entire narrative, produce nothing.
When it pays
Award to first production, Dobra lithium
SOURCE: FIRST LOSS MODEL · STAGE ASSUMPTIONS PUBLISHED
S&P Global puts the global average at almost 18 years from discovery to production. The model runs faster than that, deliberately.
No. 01 — in three parts
- PART ONE
What Ukraine Actually Signed
Every obligation tied to its clause and marked binding or not. Fifteen of them; the asymmetry is in the verbs.
DRAFT - PART TWO
Half of What?
What the 50% claim attaches to, and why the base is close to empty today.
DRAFT - PART THREE
When Does It Pay?
Modelling first revenue, and what accrues to each side in the meantime.
DRAFT