No. 02 · Social Security · Midterms 2026
Social Security isn’t going broke. It’s scheduled to cut itself.
The viral claim is that the program runs out of money. The trustees’ report says something more specific: under current law, retirement benefits fall about 22% in late 2032, automatically, unless Congress acts.
What the law allows it to pay
Share of scheduled benefits payable from dedicated revenue
SOURCE: 2026 SOCIAL SECURITY TRUSTEES REPORT · SSA, 9 JUNE 2026
Q4 2032
Retirement trust fund reserves run out
78%
Of scheduled benefits payable after that, from payroll taxes
$456
Monthly cut to today’s average retired-worker benefit, in today’s dollars
4.42%
The 75-year gap as a share of taxable payroll — up from 3.82% a year ago
How it actually works
Social Security is paid for mostly by payroll taxes on today’s workers. Those taxes keep coming after 2032. What runs out is the reserve: $2.56 trillion built up in surplus years and now being drawn down. In 2025 the program took in $1.45 trillion and paid out $1.61 trillion; the $160 billion difference came out of reserves.
When the retirement fund’s reserve runs out in the fourth quarter of 2032, the law lets it pay only what comes in. That is 78% of scheduled benefits. There is no protected group and no phase-in. Every retirement and survivor benefit falls by the same share at once.
That is the first-loss position, and it belongs to the people collecting benefits.
Who absorbs it
| Group | Under current law in Q4 2032 |
|---|---|
| Retired workers 53.8 million today | Benefits cut about 22%. Today’s average, $2,074.53/month, becomes about $1,618.13 — roughly $5,477 a year less, in today’s dollars. |
| Spouses and survivors | Paid from the same retirement fund. Same cut, same day. |
| Disabled workers | Paid from a separate fund the trustees project stays solvent for all 75 years. Not cut — unless Congress merges the funds. |
| Workers paying in | No change to the 12.4% payroll tax. The whole adjustment lands on benefits. |
SOURCES: SSA PRESS RELEASE, 9 JUNE 2026 · SSA MONTHLY STATISTICAL SNAPSHOT, JANUARY 2026. THE 2032 NOMINAL FIGURES WILL BE HIGHER AFTER COST-OF-LIVING INCREASES; THE SHARE CUT WILL NOT.
The claim ledger
Five claims circulating ahead of the midterms, each checked against the trustees’ report or SSA’s own actuaries. They come from both parties and from neither. The standard is the same for all of them: what does the document say?
- Widely circulated
“Social Security is going broke and won’t be there for you.”
Payroll taxes do not stop in 2032. What runs out is the reserve — the cushion built up in surplus years. After that, the retirement fund can still pay 78% of scheduled benefits from incoming revenue; combined with the disability fund, 83%. On the trustees' long-range projections the retirement fund could still pay about 62% at the end of the century on tax income alone.
A program with that much dedicated revenue does not go bankrupt. It pays less — which is a different problem, and in some ways a more specific one.
False - Ossoff campaign ad · Georgia Senate
Rep. Mike Collins “wants to push older Americans off Social Security and back to work.”
The line clips a June 2025 radio interview in which Collins said the country should “make it more advantageous for people to work and to get off of Medicaid, get off of Social Security, get back into the workforce.”
PolitiFact found the ad omits that he was arguing for lower taxes to encourage work generally, not telling retirees to give up benefits, and rated it Mostly False. That rating is PolitiFact's; we reproduce it rather than re-rate it.
Mostly false - Common campaign line · “Scrap the cap”
“Make high earners pay on all their wages and Social Security is fixed.”
The 12.4% payroll tax applies only up to an annual wage cap. SSA's own actuaries score eliminating the cap as closing 62%–67% of the 75-year gap, depending on whether the extra wages also earn extra benefits.
That is a large share — but it was scored against last year's 3.82% gap. The gap is now 4.42%, and the same change would close proportionally less. The actuaries have not rescored it. It is most of a fix, not a fix.
Partly true - White House · 2025
The 2025 tax law “delivers on the promise of no tax on Social Security.”
The law created a temporary deduction of $6,000 per person aged 65 and over, for 2025 through 2028, phased out above $75,000 of income for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers. It is tied to age, not to receiving Social Security, and it expires. Benefits remain taxable.
And because income tax paid on benefits is credited to the trust funds, the trustees count the law as worsening the 75-year balance by 0.16% of taxable payroll — one of the factors behind this year's worse outlook. A measure sold as helping retirees moved their cut closer.
Misleading - Circulating claim
“Immigrants are draining Social Security.”
The trustees' own figures point the other way. This year they lowered their assumption for undocumented and temporary immigration from 1.35 million to 1.2 million a year, and raised assumed departures for 2025–2030. That change alone worsened the 75-year balance by 0.21% of taxable payroll.
In the trustees' model, fewer immigrant workers means less payroll tax coming in — a bigger gap, not a smaller one.
Contradicted
What moved the date
Between the 2025 and 2026 reports the 75-year gap widened from 3.82% to 4.42% of taxable payroll, and the retirement fund’s depletion date moved from 2033 to 2032. The trustees break the change down factor by factor.
The three largest drivers are all about who will be paying in: fewer births, fewer immigrants, and a tax law that reduced revenue from taxing benefits. Updated mortality data and stronger economic assumptions pulled the other way, but not by enough.
View data
| Factor | Change, % of payroll |
|---|---|
| Lower fertility assumption | -0.35 |
| Lower immigration assumption | -0.21 |
| 2025 tax law (OBBBA) | -0.16 |
| Valuation period moved a year | -0.07 |
| Methods and data | -0.05 |
| Other demographic | +0.03 |
| Mortality data | +0.09 |
| Economic assumptions | +0.10 |
Why the gap widened this year
Change in the 75-year balance, 2025 to 2026 report, % of taxable payroll
SOURCE: 2026 TRUSTEES REPORT, AS TABULATED BY CRFB · FACTORS SUM TO -0.62 AGAINST A HEADLINE WORSENING OF 0.60; THE DIFFERENCE IS ROUNDING IN THE SOURCE TABLE
The menu
Any one of these, alone, closes the gap
Size of change needed if enacted now
SOURCE: CRFB ANALYSIS OF THE 2026 TRUSTEES REPORT
There are only two levers: more money in, or less money out. Raising the payroll tax alone means going from 12.4% to 16.65% of wages — a 34% increase on every worker. Cutting benefits alone means 25% off every check, or 30% off checks for people who haven’t retired yet. Real proposals mix the two.
Waiting makes every option bigger. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes that measures which once would have closed most of the gap on their own now have to be combined — and that each year of delay narrows what is still possible.
Reading one: a fixable gap
The shortfall is a known quantity with a known date. Removing the wage cap alone closes most of it on the actuaries’ scoring. In 1983 Congress passed a package of tax increases and benefit changes shortly before the fund would have been unable to pay full benefits, and it held for four decades. Nothing about this gap is beyond that kind of deal.
Reading two: a growing gap
The deficit grew 16% in a single year. Closing it with taxes alone is a 34% tax increase on every worker; with cuts alone, a quarter off every benefit. There is no painless version, the largest driver — the birth rate — is not quick to reverse, and every year of delay makes each option larger.
Unknowns register
| Unknown | Would be resolved by |
|---|---|
| The birth-rate path The single largest driver of this year’s change, at −0.35% of payroll. | Future birth data · Trustees Reports |
| Immigration levels Policy-dependent, and cut the balance by 0.21% this year. | Admissions and enforcement policy |
| Whether the senior deduction is extended past 2028 An extension would reduce trust-fund revenue further. | Future tax legislation |
| The cap score against the new gap Scored on the 2025 report. Not yet rescored for 2026. | SSA Office of the Chief Actuary |
| Whether Congress acts before Q4 2032 Or merges the retirement and disability funds, which buys about two years. | Legislation |
The question to ask a candidate
Which would you choose: raise the payroll tax, raise or remove the wage cap, reduce benefits for future retirees, or let the automatic cut happen in 2032?
“None of the above” is not an answer. Under current law it is the fourth option, and it is the one that happens by default.
SOURCES: SSA TRUSTEES PRESS RELEASE, 9 JUNE 2026 · SSA MONTHLY STATISTICAL SNAPSHOT · CRFB ANALYSIS OF THE 2026 TRUSTEES REPORT · SSA OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ACTUARY, PAYROLL TAX PROVISIONS · CENTER FOR RETIREMENT RESEARCH, BOSTON COLLEGE · POLITIFACT, 15 SEPT 2026 · TAX FOUNDATION · CRFB, 24 APRIL 2026
EVERY FIGURE ON THIS PAGE IS COMPUTED BY ss_model.py, PUBLISHED ALONGSIDE. NO. 02 IS A DRAFT.