No. 01 · US–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund · Part three
The fund's claim only becomes cash when new deposits reach production. Working that date out changes what the agreement is.
Base-case time from the agreement taking effect to first full production revenue at Dobra is fourteen years. First cash to the partnership lands in 2039.
That is not an outlier. S&P Global put the average lead time from discovery to production at almost 18 years for mines that began producing between 2020 and 2023. The model below runs faster than that global average, deliberately: Dobra is a known Soviet-era deposit, so the discovery and targeting phase is already behind it. What remains is audit, feasibility, financing and permitting, construction and ramp.
Meanwhile US capital accrues automatically under Article VI §5 for the whole period. The two clocks run in opposite directions for well over a decade.
Fourteen years of one-sided accrual
Years each party has been contributing, from the effective date
SOURCE: AGREEMENT ARTS. VI §2, VI §5 · FIRST LOSS MODEL, BASE CASE
Award to first production, Dobra lithium
SOURCE: FIRST LOSS MODEL
| Stage (years) | Accel. | Base | Delayed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve audit & exploration | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Feasibility | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Financing & permitting | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Construction | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Ramp to full production | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| First full production | 2035 | 2039 | 2045 |
THESE STAGE DURATIONS ARE THE MODEL'S CENTRAL JUDGEMENT AND THE FIRST THING A REVIEWER SHOULD ATTACK. THEY ARE ASSUMPTIONS, NOT SOURCED FIGURES.
Lithium deposits by grade and control
SOURCE: STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY · KYIV INDEPENDENT
Russian forces seized the Shevchenko deposit in Donetsk on 27 June 2025 — roughly 11–14 million tonnes of ore at 1.3–1.5% Li₂O, around 90% spodumene. The agreement had taken effect on 23 May.
Dragon Capital's response was that this changed nothing, because the deposit was always at high occupation risk and nobody had priced it in. That is an honest answer — and it concedes the point: the financeable resource base was always smaller than the headline one.
What accrues while nothing is produced
Under Article VI §5, US military assistance delivered after the effective date is deemed to increase the US capital contribution by its assessed value. Ukraine's contribution is a revenue right that pays essentially nothing until first production.
| Assessed aid | Ukraine contributed | US share of capital |
|---|---|---|
| $2bn | $50m | 97.6% |
| $2bn | $200m | 90.9% |
| $5bn | $50m | 99.0% |
| $5bn | $200m | 96.2% |
| $10bn | $200m | 98.0% |
| $20bn | $200m | 99.0% |
A PARAMETERISED SENSITIVITY, NOT AN ESTIMATE. THE VALUATION BASIS FOR MILITARY ASSISTANCE IS NOT PUBLIC.
If the capital account drives distributions, and military assistance accrues to it automatically for fourteen years while Ukraine's contribution is near zero by construction, then the economic split at the moment the resource finally produces bears no resemblance to the equal partnership the agreement is described as creating.
If the capital account does not drive distributions, then the automatic accrual in Article VI §5 is economically inert, and it is worth asking why it was drafted at all. One of those is true. The document that says which is the LP Agreement, and it has not been published.
Five terms worth renegotiating
SOURCES: S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE · UKRAINE STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY · KYIV INDEPENDENT · CABINET OF MINISTERS OF UKRAINE
EVERY FIGURE ON THIS PAGE IS PRODUCED BY development_curve.py, PUBLISHED ALONGSIDE. SOURCED INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ARE SEPARATED AND LABELLED IN THE FILE.